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The DAT premium party is mostly over. Since the November 2024 peak, over $60B has been wiped from DAT market caps. Nakamoto’s stock price crashed ~98%, now trading at a double digit discount below net asset value – the biggest failure to date. The market learned the hard way that holding someone else’s BTC isn’t worth a premium unless they’re doing something exceptional.

It’s not all doom and gloom though. Strategy’s (MSTR) capital innovation and XXI’s ecosystem investments still justify their valuations IMO. MSTR gives retail and institutional investors an “easy” path to discover Bitcoin, offering a range of instruments including yield. XXI has a worthy mission to be a full-fledged Bitcoin ecosystem. They’re worth a dabble with speculative capital, but don’t bet they’ll outperform just hodling BTC.

Beyond DATs, there’s a deeper problem: companies have failed to demonstrate that value flows back to L1s predictably. Lightning infrastructure is winning, but does routing revenue accrue to BTC holders? DeFi protocols move billions, yet LINK – the backbone oracle – has a chart that looks terrible despite obvious utility. At ETHDenver a few years ago I heard founders openly ask “Why do I need to pay Vitalik!?” They’re capturing value at their layer, not the base.

I’ve made these mistakes myself. Chased SUI (selling my SOL stack) thinking I was early on a better L1. Rotated my ETH bag into Bored Apes thinking blue-chip NFTs were the play. Still holding both – what I thought were quick wins turned into multi-year bags. Lost not just in dollars, but in BTC terms. The opportunity cost of not just stacking kills you twice.

So here’s where I’ve landed: My core holdings stay in BTC. Accept I’ll never have enough. Try to buy the dips. We’re still early.

But I’m not sitting out entirely. My speculative capital goes to the handful of companies I believe are genuinely strengthening Bitcoin’s L1 – not just building on it, but making Bitcoin itself more valuable and inevitable.

Bitwise is building the on-ramp infrastructure. Millions of retail investors get exposure through their funds. BTC remains their biggest AUM for a reason. Long game, but essential as adoption accelerates.

Voltage is tackling Lightning GTM better than anyone. If anyone can deliver a true Bitcoin L2 that works, it’s them. The ambition is there, and getting it right means BTC becomes a more usable medium of exchange.

Fold took a beating but made smart long-term choices – strengthened their cap structure, kept shipping their credit card, has multiple irons in the fire. They’re thinking in years, not quarters, and bring daily BTC utility to the masses.

The bar is higher now. We’re still building the plane while flying it, but I’ve never been more optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. There are no guarantees, of course. But, if you’re going to invest beyond pure HODLing, back the companies that make Bitcoin better, not just their own treasuries fatter.