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This has been in my drafts for months and – somewhat depressingly – the topic is still around today. The thinking is that the economy moves in four year cycles and, perhaps more relevantly, Bitcoin price does too. We got our Q4 crash and bitcoin dipped ~50% with fear levels having been close to historic lows, and now we’re grinding or ranging depending on your viewpoint.

For four year cycle veterans this represents the “proof” that the cycle has ended and we are now in bear territory for months to come. For non four year cycle enthusiasts – aka “this time it’s different” bros – there are a dozen reasons for this blip and bitcoin is about to moon on a wave of liquidity the likes of which the developed world has never seen before.

So, who is correct, and does it really matter?

There is a real possibility both camps will be “right”. And, as the saying goes, everyone will get their bitcoin at the price they deserve.

Here’s what matters: from degen traders to Wall St, everyone’s trying to time the perfect entry. An investing framework might work for stocks or bonds, but bitcoin doesn’t care about your cycle theory. The opportunity isn’t in timing – it’s in not missing the accumulation window entirely.

The best time to buy the scarcest and hardest money ever invented was yesterday; the next best time is today. DCA if you need to smooth the entry, but don’t paper hand the opportunity to be early by waiting for a dip that may never come.