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• Current quantum tech can’t even crack factor-15 problems, let alone SHA-256. We’re talking orders of magnitude away.
• The “secret quantum computer” theory doesn’t hold up. Given the public $Bs in quantum R&D, a similar shadow program would be nearly impossible to hide.
• Here’s the kicker: Bitcoin devs aren’t quantum experts. BIPs are in progress, but nobody knows the real timeline or threat level.
• Game theory matters too: even IF quantum breaks crypto, why target Bitcoin first? There are bigger fish (banking, military, etc). You’d get one shot before defenses mobilize.

The takeaway: Quantum concerns are real but years away. Bitdevs are moving deliberately, not panicking. Most current “quantum will kill Bitcoin” takes are FUD.

Nobody knows for certain. Stay informed, not anxious.